By Michelle Jamrisko
     As the embattled Iranian government continues to thwart significant international progress on reining in its nuclear program, impatience with the country's response to outreach and fear over its secretive nuclear activities has accelerated speculation that fresh sanctions might soon fall on Iran.
     Already subject to heavy sanctions, Iran could face new measures more focused on its valued petroleum resources if it does not voluntarily take steps to satisfy the demands of the International Atomic Energy Agency and the so-called P5-plus-1 nations, comprised of the five U.N. Security Council permanent members -- the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China -- plus Germany.
     Such focused sanctions and even threats of their implementation frequently have led the Iranian government to increase taxes and ration gasoline -- unpopular measures that reveal the nation's unfortunate dependence on outside sources to refine its vast oil and gas reserves.
     But the sanctions, as well as such preparatory moves by the government, do not always spark the kind of popular criticism that outside governments expect. Solidarity with their government on what the Iranians widely believe are uneven, foreign attempts to crack down on their nuclear rights has helped the government evade fault.
     ''We have to keep in mind that the government now has three decades of experience under its belt in terms of how to deal with sanctions,'' said Mehrzad Boroujerdi, director of Middle Eastern studies at Syracuse University.
     Boroujerdi noted that Iran's nuclear facility near Qom -- revealed by the government in September -- was under construction shortly after former U.S. President George W. Bush labeled Iran part of an ''axis of evil'' in 2002. The chronology is evidence that Iran is ''proactive,'' not wanting to be ''caught with their pants down,'' he said.
     ''They have developed this ability to basically transfer the pain to the citizenry,'' he said, but added that recent ''repressive measures'' by the government might lead the Iranian people to shift a little more of the blame for sanctions, rising taxes and rations to their own government.
     The government's crackdown, which reached a peak as public protests rocked the country after the disputed presidential elections in June, has not abated. Protesters faced another regime backlash Nov. 4 when they disrupted an official rally marking the anniversary of the seizure of the U.S. embassy in Tehran.
     Targeted sanctions also could have mixed effects on various factions of the complex Iranian governmental structure. The military leaders in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Council, for instance, might find increased power if restrictions on foreign contractors allow it to seize more governmental deals.
     The generally pro-government merchant class, on the other hand, likely would resent any further restrictions on foreign commerce and trade.
     Beyond Iran's borders, implementation of sanctions is extraordinarily complicated. Companies with commercial ties to Iran weigh governmental pressure against the prospects for increased business if rival organizations decide to close their doors to the Islamic Republic.
     And many nations are known to be less enthusiastic about cutting profitable ties in the name of nuclear non-proliferation. Of top concern to the United States are China and Russia -- fellow U.N. Security Council members that could hinder any effective sanctions deal and have consistently watered down such measures.
     Skepticism of Chinese and Russian cooperation has led many analysts to set low expectations.
     ''What's going to get authorized by the Security Council and even what could get done on some sort of 'coalition of the willing' -- or I guess now they're calling it the 'coalition of the like-minded' -- whatever could get done on that basis isn't going to have anything more than a kind of nuisance effect on the Iranians,'' said Flynt Leverett, director of the Iran project at the New America Foundation.
     Leverett added that any agreement from the Security Council is likely months away from fruition.
     During U.S. President Barack Obama's visit to China this week, disagreements on Iranian sanctions between the two powers were on display as the U.S. president warned of ''consequences'' for Iran's stalling while Chinese President Hu Jintao emphasized his desire to ''appropriately resolve the Iranian nuclear issue through dialogue and negotiations'' with its strong trade partner.
     Moscow has traditionally been as unenthusiastic about enacting restraints on its trading partner, and a late-summer survey by the Pew Research Center revealed that more Russians label a nuclear Iran as a ''minor threat/not a threat'' than as a ''major threat.''
     But recent disapproval of Iran's delay on negotiations over enriching low-enrichment uranium in Russia has increased tensions between the two nations.
     ''In case we fail (to ensure a peaceful Iranian nuclear program), the other options remain on the table in order to move the process in a different direction,'' Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said after a bilateral meeting with Obama in Singapore last weekend.
     Following the meeting, White House senior Russia adviser Mike McFaul underlined that the sanctions issue is being discussed at ''the highest levels.''
     And Obama administration officials consistently have said they are pleasantly surprised by Chinese and Russian cooperation on nuclear non-proliferation efforts focused on Iran and North Korea.
     As Obama struggles to bolster international support for increased pressure on Iran, the U.S. Congress is pushing measures to pre-approve presidential efforts in convincing global companies to cut economic ties.
     House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Howard Berman earned committee approval for his Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act Oct. 28. On the Senate side, a more comprehensive Iranian sanctions measure was unanimously passed out of the Banking Committee one day later.
     While the Senate is currently overwhelmed by legislation aiming to revamp the U.S. health care system, the House might soon begin floor debate on the Iranian sanctions bill.
     The IAEA has also stepped up pressure and issued a call earlier this week for further answers on Iran's reporting of its nuclear facility near Qom, which has sparked new questions about the nation's nuclear activities since its September unveiling.
     In reply to an IAEA-negotiated proposal that would send nuclear material to Russia for reprocessing, Iran has only issued unofficial responses indicating rejection of the deal.
     As Iran tests the patience of international actors, government officials have maintained that their answers have been forthright and that suspicions of nuclear arms buildup are unfounded.
==Kyodo