By Shinya Ajima
     With incoming Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama having set a more ambitious emissions reduction target for the government to be led by the Democratic Party of Japan than that pledged by outgoing rival Taro Aso, nuclear power is emerging as one of the most effective possible solutions.
     In the only country to have suffered atomic bombings, however, the hurdles remain high for those pushing for greater use of nuclear energy, which is ''cleaner'' in terms of carbon emissions than fossil fuels. The DPJ's alliance with a smaller party that calls for a withdrawal from nuclear technologies could also pose a hindrance.
     The afterglow of the DPJ's historic victory in last month's general election proved short-lived this week as business leaders turned to complaining about the possible costs that would be entailed in achieving Hatoyama's target of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 25 percent compared with 1990 levels by 2020.
     They also said that the new prime minister should present realistic measures to attain the goal, at a time when Japan's energy-efficiency is already the highest among industrialized economies, and solar and other alternative clean energy sources can only supplement nuclear and fossil fuels in power generation.
     Hatoyama has said his government will adopt all necessary policies to achieve the emissions target, though he has yet to elaborate on specifics.
     In its election campaign platform, the DPJ said it would continue to use nuclear energy on condition that the government is able to secure people's ''understanding and trust.''
     Public trust in the safety of nuclear power generation has been undermined in Japan, despite the country's advanced technology, by a series of serious accidents and safety coverups by major utilities over the last decade.
     In May, Tokyo Electric Power Co. resumed operating its key reactor at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power station in Niigata Prefecture, the world's biggest nuclear power plant. The reactor had been shut down after a major earthquake hit the area in July 2007.
     In the run-up to the restart, residents and local governments scrutinized TEPCO, which had reported a number of incidents including minor fires at the facility.
     Affected by temporary shutdowns for safety checks, Japan's nuclear power generation has fallen with the operating capacity rate of the 53 reactors nationwide declining to 60 percent in fiscal 2008, according to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The rate peaked at 84 percent in fiscal 1998.
     Utility firms have boosted thermal power generation to cover power shortages, resulting in the release of more carbon dioxide.
     ''Nuclear power was, is and will be key in Japan's battle against climate change,'' said Tomoko Murakami, an analyst at the Institute of Energy Economics Japan.
     If Japan is aiming to cut emissions by over 15 percent with the help of nuclear power, the country will need to build at least nine more reactors and raise the overall operating capacity rate to 90 percent, the ministry said.
     But Murakami added, ''The government must continue its efforts to win the understanding of people and local governments that host atomic power plants.''
     In June, Aso said Japan would reduce its carbon emissions by 15 percent from 2005 levels by 2020, which corresponds to a cut of 8 percent from 1990 levels.
     Aso's Liberal Democratic Party-led government did not seriously consider a 25 percent reduction among other options. ''That suggests how difficult the target (set by Hatoyama) is,'' said a senior government official, who asked not to be named.
     The upcoming change of government will make things more difficult.
     The DPJ announced on Wednesday that it has formed a new ruling coalition with the Social Democratic Party and the People's New Party. The SDP promised in its campaign platform a ''withdrawal in stages from nuclear power generation.''
     Like the DPJ, the SDP also pledged to promote green energy such as solar and wind power generation, backed by environmental groups, many of which have blasted government red tape for preventing a greater uptake of new, cleaner technologies.
     The focus is now on how the DPJ will find common ground with the SDP, with some expecting that the latter will climb down. But experts say there should be greater use of green energy, as urged by the SDP.
     ''From the viewpoint of energy security, Japan should increase efforts to generate renewable energy because it can do so domestically,'' said Takao Shiino, counselor at Nomura Research Institute, referring to the country's dependence on imports for more than 90 percent of energy resources.
     It is likely that renewable energy sources will remain supplementary in the near future. ''Solar, wind and geothermal...all of these are very important. But there is a limit to their role,'' he said.
     Government data shows that in fiscal 2005, renewable energy sources accounted for only 1 percent of Japan's overall power source mix. Under a scenario for a 20 percent emissions cut, the projected power mix would consist of 45 percent from nuclear power, 14 percent from green energy and the remainder from fossil fuels and hydropower generation.
     Shinichi Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Credit Suisse in Japan, said that given Hatoyama's emissions cut pledge, it seems almost inevitable that Japan will increase its reliance on nuclear energy.
     ''Renewable energy is largely affected by weather conditions and therefore doubts remain over whether it could be a key electricity source as a stable power supply must be ensured at a reasonable cost,'' he said.
     Ichikawa acknowledged the complex feelings of many Japanese people regarding nuclear technology due to the memory of the 1945 atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. But he said, ''That is why it is Japan that could be best placed to urge the peaceful use of nuclear energy.''
==Kyodo