The U.S. economy appears poised to finally emerge from the worst downturn since the Great Depression, but deepening joblessness is likely to cast a shadow over the course of any rebound scenario.
     ''In the last few months, the economy has done measurably better than expected,'' President Barack Obama said in a weekly address to the country Saturday, noting the government's $787 billion stimulus package and other policy measures ''have helped put the brakes on this recession.''
     According to government data released Friday, the U.S. economy shrank an annualized real 1.0 percent in the second quarter of 2009, a substantial improvement from the previous quarter's decline of 6.4 percent, a 27-year low.
     The International Monetary Fund in its annual review of the U.S. economy stuck to earlier forecasts that gross domestic product will contract 2.6 percent in 2009 but expand 0.8 percent in 2010.
     Still, executive directors of the Washington-based agency said they expect a ''gradual'' recovery with risks ''tilted to the downside'' and that growth potential ''could remain well below past trends for a considerable period.''
     A key threat to any recovery is the still-deteriorating job market, which is a main culprit behind the thriftier behavior Americans have adopted since the recession kicked in.
     ''One shouldn't be too optimistic. Unemployment is still rising, and will continue to rise for quite a long time,'' said Alice Rivlin, a senior fellow on economic affairs at the Brookings Institution.
     The situation is accentuated by a 1.2 percent decline in personal spending in the second quarter, which occurred despite a tax cut under the stimulus program. The retreat followed a 0.6 percent rise in the first quarter.
     Personal spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, seems likely to remain weak for a little longer, with the Conference Board's index of consumer confidence down in July for the second month in a row after rising sharply in the spring.
     ''We are pretty concerned about the weakness in the labor market,'' said Marcello Estevao, deputy chief of the IMF's North American Division. ''The weakness in the labor market is going to reflect into the weakness in the housing market.''
     Obama said the jobless rate to be released this week is likely to increase further from the current 26-year high of 9.5 percent. The Federal Reserve has forecast that the rate will top 10 percent at the end of 2009.
     ''As far as I'm concerned, we will not have a recovery as long as we keep losing jobs. And I won't rest until every American who wants a job can find one,'' he said.
     The IMF said ending generous fiscal and monetary measures to bolster the economy will have to wait until a sustainable recovery takes root but that the United States should develop exit strategies from stimulus programs.
     U.S. policymakers are painfully aware of what they need to do.
     ''Experience during the U.S. Depression and in Japan during the 1990s teaches the danger of premature declarations of victory and withdrawals of stimulative policy,'' said Lawrence Summers, head of the National Economic Council.
     While noting soaring unemployment is a ''major area of concern,'' he said it does not follow that the stimulus effort has failed as some critics argue.
==Kyodo